Comments on: The De Civitate Poor Man’s Stop-Trump Delegate Tracker https://ropersanchor.jamesjheaney.com/2016/03/14/the-de-civitate-poor-mans-stop-trump-delegate-tracker/ "And when the last law was down, and the Devil turned 'round on you, where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat?" Wed, 04 May 2016 03:40:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0 By: BCSWowbagger https://ropersanchor.jamesjheaney.com/2016/03/14/the-de-civitate-poor-mans-stop-trump-delegate-tracker/#comment-151218 Thu, 17 Mar 2016 21:20:00 +0000 https://www.jamesjheaney.com/?p=1223#comment-151218 In reply to Stacy Ballard.

Thanks for this! I hadn’t seen it.

Broadly speaking, I agree with his analysis. What I fear is his assumptions: it seems to me far more likely that we have a Trump 45 / Cruz 40 / Kasich 15 race from here on out than a Cruz 45 / Trump 40 / Kasich 15. Kasich, quite simply, draws many more votes away from Cruz than he does from Trump.

If Kasich drops out — like, RIGHT NOW — I do think Cruz will very likely deny Trump a majority and even quite possibly win on the first ballot. Otherwise, I think Kasich is going to spoil it for Cruz… thereby handing the nomination to Trump, as this writer’s third tab shows.

I wrote a much longer piece on the Kasich Spoiler Effect today, because of this. The question of the day is now: will Kasich listen?

–James Heaney

]]> By: Stacy Ballard https://ropersanchor.jamesjheaney.com/2016/03/14/the-de-civitate-poor-mans-stop-trump-delegate-tracker/#comment-151216 Thu, 17 Mar 2016 07:10:00 +0000 https://www.jamesjheaney.com/?p=1223#comment-151216 Another person who has done some delegate math based on the post March 15th states using their varying rules lays out a path for Cruz to reach the delegate threshold in a close two man Cruz 51 / Trump 49 split race. It has Cruz winning with 1289 bound delegates, with the unbound still uncounted.

He also runs the numbers with a three man race split of Cruz 45 / Trump 40 / Kasich 15, which gives Cruz a close 1214 bound delegates. Only a few unbound delegates would be needed and would be very doable on the first ballot.

The link to the analysis and math…

http://www.batesline.com/archives/2016/03/ted-cruz-path-to-nominat.html

]]> By: The March 15th Panic Has Begun: A Reply to Tim Alberta » De Civitate https://ropersanchor.jamesjheaney.com/2016/03/14/the-de-civitate-poor-mans-stop-trump-delegate-tracker/#comment-151214 Mon, 14 Mar 2016 18:56:10 +0000 https://www.jamesjheaney.com/?p=1223#comment-151214 […] De Civitate "And when the last law was down, and the Devil turned 'round on you, where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat?" ← The De Civitate Poor Man’s Stop-Trump Delegate Tracker […]

]]> By: Trump’s Delegate Lead is Overstated » De Civitate https://ropersanchor.jamesjheaney.com/2016/03/14/the-de-civitate-poor-mans-stop-trump-delegate-tracker/#comment-151213 Mon, 14 Mar 2016 07:07:30 +0000 https://www.jamesjheaney.com/?p=1223#comment-151213 […] I have launched a Poor Man’s Stop-Trump Delegate Tracker based on the “Nightmare Scenario” laid out in this post.  The media and […]

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